Market Commentary

It was a mixed bag for global markets in October as economies grappled with domestic economic influences and diverging monetary policies. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions continued to weigh on collective sentiment and uncertainty about the US presidential election kept everyone on their toes.

US investors were left to digest conflicting messages on the economy, chiefly from the labour market. September jobs growth dazzled on the upside only to plummet unexpectedly in October, although economic growth remained robust overall. All of which will be food for thought for the Federal Reserve ahead of its November meeting. After being relatively range-bound for much of the month, share markets turned touchy, too.

Tech and AI-related stocks bore the brunt amid a bout of profit-taking and a growing affection for more defensive assets. Local investors proved a pluckier bunch, helped by the RBNZ shaving 50 basis points off the official cash rate, as well as accompanying speculation that there’s more where that came from. Inflation remained well-behaved, falling to 2.2% in the September quarter, putting it squarely back within the RBNZ’s comfort zone.

While current conditions remain challenging for many, particularly given the downtrodden employment market, rising business confidence suggested better times on the horizon. Australia’s commodity-rich economy remained resilient, with jobs still being created at a stellar pace. Investors weren’t wholly enthusiastic, though, as this could well keep the Reserve Bank on the sidelines for longer when it comes to rate cuts, despite inflation easing to its lowest rate in three years.

Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 finished October -1% lower, the tech-focused Nasdaq fell by -0.5%, and the ASX 200 lost -1.3%. The NZX 50 bucked the trend on the back of its more defensive tilt, gaining 1.7% during the month. Meanwhile the UK’s FTSE 100 finished down by -1.5% after the Labour government’s budget rained on more than a few parades with a walloping £40 billion tax hike, which somewhat stole the thunder of inflation’s unexpected nosedive to 1.7% in September.

GBP and AUD / NZD exchange rate change from 30 September 2024 to 31 October 2024:

GBP and AUD / NZD exchange rate change from 31 October 2023 to 31 October 2024: