Market Commentary

June market commentary

June was jam-packed with market moving events, though not all markets were equally moved as investors got more comfortable on the edge of their seats. Tariffs remained a hot topic, as was the spectacularly public implosion of the world’s most unlikely bromance. But it was Israel’s air assault on Iran later in the month that really rattled cages.

US equities were relatively range-bound at first as investors kept their cool despite the near constant economic and geopolitical noise. Trade talks with China overturned recent tit-for-tat restrictions but yielded little else. Meanwhile, manufacturing came under strain, with US factory activity contracting for a third straight month in May, while lengthy supplier delays suggested some goods were becoming harder to get. More reassuringly, the job market held up and inflation remained well under control.

Stocks stumbled, oil prices surged and gold broke records in the wake of Israel’s attack on Iran and the latter’s swift retaliation. The US then joined the fray with a series of strikes that helped bring tensions back to a low simmer. Assets immediately course-corrected. Oil and the US dollar slumped, while equities gathered steam, with US markets ending the half year at all-time highs. Except for Tesla. Its share price cratered amid mudslinging between CEO Elon Musk and erstwhile bestie President Trump over his big, beautiful, expensive Bill.

On home turf, local equities kept their heads above water in June, albeit with less buoyancy than some global peers. The NZX’s defensive tilt means risk-based sell offs don’t hit quite so hard, but nor do the enthusiastic rebounds. The performance disparity was particularly pronounced over the half year, with the NZX ending the period down almost 4%. While the domestic economy was stronger than expected in the first quarter, Kiwis remained reluctant consumers, with retail spending down again in May.

Australian markets were also relatively subdued amid an uncertain backdrop, although energy sector resilience proved broadly supportive. As did the latest inflation print, which eased to its lowest in several years, making a July rate cut close to certain.

Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 finished June up 5.0%, while the tech-focused Nasdaq rose 6.6%. The NZX 50 gained 1.5% over the month, while the ASX 200 finished 1.4% ahead. Meanwhile, the UK’s FTSE 100 was less upbeat, ending June down -0.1%. The World Bank slashed its global growth forecast for 2025 to 2.3% amid higher tariffs and heightened geopolitical risk, while NATO members agreed to amp up their defence budgets to 5% of GDP over the next decade.

GBP and AUD / NZD exchange rate change from 31 May 2025 to 30 June 2025:

GBP and AUD / NZD exchange rate change from 30 June 2024 to 30 June 2025: