Market Commentary

Donald Trump’s surprisingly resounding victory in the US Presidential election dominated global news-flow in November. While commentary was not always kind, capital markets had a field day in anticipation of tax breaks and a fertile environment for US corporates.

The S&P 500 briefly breached its all-time high and volatility fell back below historical averages as investors expressed relief that there’d be no repeat of the drawn out and antagonistic political wrangling that characterised the previous election. The Federal Reserve (the Fed) further buoyed spirits by cutting interest rates for the second time this year.

It wasn’t all smooth sailing, however. Inflation data caused a pause in proceedings – US consumer prices rose 2.6% from a year earlier, up from 2.4% in September and the first rise in annual inflation in seven months. Meanwhile, markets were less than impressed with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s suggestion that they might ease up on rate cuts now given the largely robust economy.

President-elect Trump rattled a few global counterparts with fighting talk on trade tariffs. While he name-checked Mexico, China and Canada specifically, it didn’t go unnoticed locally given our affection for selling to American consumers. The NZX maintained its composure for the most part, though, aided by another hefty rate cut to 4.25%; the RBNZ has now trimmed 125 basis points off the OCR since August.

Australia’s central bank (the RBA) continued to hold its nerve, keeping the cash rate steady at 4.35% for the seventh consecutive meeting. And their red-hot jobs market means there’s little chance the RBA will change its stance in the short term. While the ASX stumbled a couple of times amid Trump’s tariff taunts and a retreat from resource stocks, it still followed its global peers higher overall.

Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 finished November up 5.7%, while the tech-focused Nasdaq jumped 6.2%. The NZX 50 and ASX 200 finished the month in a tie, both gaining 3.4%. Meanwhile the UK’s FTSE 100 posted a slightly softer 2.2% gain as the business community continued to lament the government’s planned heavy-handed tax hikes.

GBP and AUD / NZD exchange rate change from 31 October to 30 November 2024:

  GBP and AUD / NZD exchange rate change from 30 November 2023 to 30 November 2024: